Becky Kenton-Lake from Stop Climate Chaos Scotland provides us with an overview of what to expect at the upcoming COP29 in Baku.
The 29th Conference of the Parties in Baku, Azerbaijan in November is a key moment to highlight where progress must be made by both Scottish and UK governments in delivering climate justice. Stop Climate Chaos Scotland is putting together a policy paper with key asks ahead of the conference, and summarises some of the critical issues at the talks below.
With most estimates showing that the planet is very near to the 1.5C temperature goal, and the losses and damages of climate change already estimated to already be costing hundreds of billions of dollars annually, the stakes rise higher at each COP. Hope is often in shorter supply, and as with previous years, there are serious concerns about the influence of fossil fuel companies over the talks and of human rights abuses in the host country. But what are some of the key issues, and what would progress look like?
Critically, COP29 is tasked with agreeing a New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) from 2025 onwards. In 2009 developed countries pledged to mobilise $100bn per year of climate finance by 2020, but have failed to do so. It is hoped that the new goal will be more rooted in what is actually needed by countries to address climate impacts, with a clearer plan set out on how to achieve it. Negotiations at COP29 on this issue are likely to be fierce and combative. A summary of the latest negotiations on the NCQG and the positions of key country groupings can be seen here.
With a deadline to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) towards the overall temperature goal set in the Paris Agreement by February 2025, COP29 is a key moment to drive up ambition. The Climate Action Network has called on countries to reflect equity through fair shares, climate justice and adequate finance in their enhanced NDCs.
A global fund for Loss and Damage was established at COP27 and then operationalised at COP28. This year, a board for the fund has been established which is now working out the details of how the fund will operate, but none of the $700m pledged to the fund at COP28 has yet been distributed.
A high-level dialogue will be convened during COP29 to engage political leaders in commenting on how it is developing. Crucially, there remains much concern amongst developing countries that the newly titled “Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage” could yet fall short of the scale of ambition required to truly meet the need. Many developing countries and civil society organisations will therefore be pushing at COP29 for a defined target for L&D to be set under the NCQG, and this is likely to be a highly contentious area of conflict in Baku. Furthermore, it is hoped by the COP29 Presidency that significantly more pledges towards the fund will be made during the conference. The Loss and Damage Collaboration published a briefing on what needs to happen on Loss and Damage in 2024.
While the Paris Agreement set a crucial target for reducing emissions, many governments have continued to approve new coal, oil and gas projects even though burning the world’s current fossil fuel reserves would result in seven times more emissions than what is compatible with keeping warming below 1.5ºC. Action to phase-out fossil fuels has barely been mentioned at COPs before or after this.
COP28 in Dubai reached an historic agreement to “transition away from fossil fuels” after much debate and discussion over the two weeks in the UAE. COP29 must now make sure that this ambition is realised by ensuring that across negotiation streams there are tangible steps put in place to ensure this transition can happen quickly.
About Stop Climate Chaos Scotland
Stop Climate Chaos Scotland (SCCS) is a diverse coalition of over 70 civil society organisations in Scotland who campaign together on climate change. Our members include environment, faith and belief groups, international development organisations, trade and student unions and community groups. We believe that the Scottish and UK Governments should take bold action to tackle climate change, delivering our fair share of action to keep global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees and supporting climate justice around the world.